Expectations of an interest rate cut boost BC copper, with the SHFE copper price spread inversion expanding further [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Published: Aug 11, 2025 17:54

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract opened at 69,690 yuan/mt and closed with a positive daily performance. During the night session, the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract initially dipped to 69,600 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward. After the day session opened, the center of copper prices continued to rise, reaching the intraday high of 70,360 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately closed at 70,200 yuan/mt, marking a 0.85% increase. Open interest stood at 4,394 lots, a decrease of 81 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume reaching 3,286 lots. On the macro front, US Fed Governor Bowman expressed support for starting interest rate cuts in September, with three cuts expected this year. JPMorgan Chase also revised its interest rate cut expectations from one to three, which is bullish for copper prices. On the fundamental side, LME inventories decreased by 150 mt to 155,700 mt on the supply side. As of August 11, SMM's nationwide copper inventories in major regions decreased by 400 mt from the previous Thursday to 131,600 mt. On the demand side, the rise in copper prices to 79,000 yuan/mt suppressed downstream demand.

 

The SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 79,020 yuan/mt. If based on the most-traded BC copper 2509 contract price of 70,200 yuan/mt, its after-tax price would be 79,326 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2509 contract and the BC copper contract was -306, maintaining an inversion and increasing from the previous day.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
Feb 6, 2026 23:56
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
Read More
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"
Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan
Feb 6, 2026 23:56
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
Feb 6, 2026 23:54
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
Read More
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...
Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.
Feb 6, 2026 23:54
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
Feb 6, 2026 23:47
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
Read More
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions
After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."
Feb 6, 2026 23:47